Aug
01

Facebook Foreclosure

FACT:

In Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and England, mortgage lenders have been allowed to serve foreclosure notices via Facebook, in most cases when the defaulting borrowers couldn’t be located elsewhere. In at least two such cases, the borrowers reacted right away, thus allowing the foreclosures to proceed.

RESPONSE:

Facebook seems happy about the trend, with a spokesperson stating after the first case, in 2008, that the court had validated the site “as a reliable, secure, and private medium for communication.”

Jul
29

Canadian Economy Stumbles in May

FACT:

GDP fell 0.3% during the month, following a flat performance in April and a 0.3% increase in March.

EXPECTATION:

Most economists had expected an advance of 0.1 – 0.2% in May

EXPLANATION:

  • Oil and gas extraction decreased by 4.2 per cent as wildfires in Northern Alberta as well as maintenance shutdowns resulted in reduced production at oilfields
  • Manufacturing was also a soft spot in the report, although that sector could show greater traction in coming months as parts problems fade

Jul
28

Bank Lobbying for higher interest rate?

Last Tuesday Bank of Canada decided to maintain its overnight rate at 1%, for the reason of global volatility in the U.S. and Europe.

Now RBC Royal Bank of Canada may be priming the pump for an interest rate hike at the Central Bank, its economists arguing prime should soon be pushed up in order to block vulnerable buyers from entering the housing market.

 “There is a popular misconception that the Bank of Canada cannot afford to raise interest rates because this would prove too damaging for mortgage holders,” Eric Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management, says in a report released this week. “The opposite is, in fact, true. The reality is that the Bank of Canada cannot afford to delay raising interest rates, for precisely the same reason. The longer the bank delays, the more marginal borrowers will enter the market and be walloped when rates rise, and the further home prices will go above their equilibrium levels, only to tumble later.”

Lascelles is arguing that any further extension of those rates could compromise the country’s economic stability if it encourages unprepared borrowers to enter the housing market just before the inevitable rate increase.

Still, the economist concedes that a relatively small portion of Canadians are most vulnerable to the shock of rising rates. That’s despite the high levels of household debt-to-income ratios, currently sitting at147 per cent.

Is the argument to hike interest rate really good for the economy of Canada or just once again to feed the bank’s greed, like public outcried in 2008?

Jul
27

Canada Prime Rate History

In a previous post we explored the definition of prime rate and the mechanism that determine the change of prime rate. Now we are going further to examine the actual change of prime rate back to 1970s.

 

The diagram shows us that:

  • During 1970s, the prime rate was up and down around 10%;
  • The beginning of the 1980s witnessed the highest and most volatile prime rate. The highest point was seen at 22.75% on Aug. 7, 1981.
  • The prime rate was within the range of 10-15% for the most parts of 1980s and the beginning of 1990s.
  • The prime rate was within the range of 5-10% for the most parts of 1990s.
  • The prime rate was up and down around 5% for the most parts of 2000s until the latest financial crisis, which led the prime rate plummet to the historical lowest point at 2.25% on April 22, 2009.
  • The general trend since 1990s is that prime rate gets lower and lower, which means credit becomes cheaper over time.
  • Generally prime rate goes up more or less during economic downturn, which we have seen in early 1980s, 1988-1990, and 1998-2001. The only exception we saw is during the latest financial crisis — The prime rate plummeted.
  • Why credit could become cheaper while inflation had been kept low, which was widely seen caused the latest financial crisis? Mr. Greenspan said it was because emerging economies such as BRICS liked to buy US treasury bonds, which now are more looked like bombs.
  • Has the historical low prime rate purposely set by central banks actually stimulated the economy or, on the contrary, prolonged the recovery of the troubled economy?

Jul
27

Population grow in Calgary

FACT:

Calgary’s population increased by 19,421 to 1,090,936, according to the civic census released Wednesday, a reversal from last year.

DETAILS:

  • The city continued to see dramatic growth in some of its newer suburban communities, including Panorama Hills, Auburn Bay, New Brighton and Cranston.New suburban communities entertained roughly 90 percent of the percent of the all new population growth in the city.
  • Calgary’s more established communities are also seeing a small resurgence. “This is very good news because it’s starting to shift our patterns of growth,” Mayor Naheed Nenshi said. “What we really see is that starting to happen along transit corridors.”

REASON:

In a sign that the economy is rebounding, the hike in population is virtually split between an increase of births and an increase of newcomers to Calgary

Jul
27

Prime Rate Canada

Prime rate is the lending rate that preserved for the prime clients, or best clients of the banks, which characterized by high credit profile and established relationship with the banks.

Prime rate is important to mortgage consumers in that it is used to calculate the interest rate for adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), or variable rate mortgages. A variable mortgage rateis often expressed as “P± x”, where “P” is the Prime Rate and “x” is certain base points of discount or premium. So the change in prime rate affects your mortgage rate as long as yours is a variable rate mortgage. On the other hand, it doesn’t matter if you chose a fixed rate mortgage.

The next question you may want to ask is “How does prime rate change?”

Theoretically prime rate is determined by commercial banks and other financial institutions, instead of central banks such as Bank of Canada, and therefore it may differ from bank to bank. However, as a matter of fact, most commercial banks and financial institutions take same measures to determine their prime rate, which in Canada, is to target the overnight rate of Bank of Canada with a certain bps of premium (spread).

That being said, the financial institutions change their prime rate in the same pace as the central bank to change the overnight rate. The latest exception happened on Oct. 8, 2008, when Bank of Canada lowered its target overnight rate 50 bps to 2.5% while financial institutions only lowered their prime rate 25 bps. As a result, the spread between prime rate of financial institutions and the overnight rate of the central bank increased to 200 bps, 25 bps up from 175 bps previously, despite public outrage over bank’s greedy.

 

Jul
25

Policy numbers in 2010 slip for CMHC

FACT: 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp insured 643,991 homes last year – a staggering 187,091 less than it had expected — reflecting a drop in demand for its product but also default insurance in general. Still, CMHC still managed a profit, providing $106.1 billion in insurance last year. It’s about $17 billion below the $123 billion it had budgeted for.

EXPLANATION:

  • The introduction of tougher qualifying terms, pegged to the five-year benchmark rate
  •  Increased competition in the marketplace. For its first quarter this year, Genworth Canada wrote $101 million in net premiums, a 7 per cent increase over the same period last year. Canada Guaranty is also dealing with BMO to improve choice among mortgage default insurance providers.
  • Still all default insurers are increasingly challenged to win business from the big banks, now finding it easier to securitize and sell off their low-risk mortgages without shelling out for portfolio insurance.

Jul
19

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Unchanged

The Bank of Canada has kept its bench-mark overnight interest rate steady at one per cent.

REASON: the need to keep the country’s economy growing amid the U.S. and European debt crises outweighs the need to slam the brakes on inflation.

The Bank of Canada said Tuesday that Canada faces an uncertain international economic situation with European and U.S. debt concerns dominating the fiscal landscape

“The U.S. economy has grown at a slower pace than expected and continues to be restrained by the consolidation of household balance sheets and slow growth in employment,” the bank said in a press release.

“While growth in core Europe has been stronger than expected, necessary fiscal austerity measures in a number of countries will restrain growth over the projection horizon.”

Thus, while Canada is growing roughly as the central bank had forecast, the country still faces a threat to its slowly-recovering export sales, partly because of weak U.S. economic growth and partly because of a rising Canadian currency.

RESULT: In response to the central bank’s decision, the Canadian dollar has gained more than a cent in morning trading.

Tuesday’s rate decision provided further lift for the Canadian loonie. The currency traded at $1.053 US in mid-morning, up from Monday’s Bank of Canada close of $1.043 US.

OUTLOOK:  The Bank of Canada said it is eyeing rate hikes into the later months of 2011.

“To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn,” the Bank’s statement said.

The central bank now forecasts that Canada will expand by 2.8 per cent in 2011 and 2.6 per cent in 2012, the year that the Bank expects the Canadian economy will reach full capacity.

Jul
14

Mortgage Consumers Value Advice from Mortgage Professionals

After deciding to look for information about mortgage options, half (51%) of recent mortgage consumers started with a mortgage or financial professional. The remaining half of respondents reported having started with family or friends, the Internet, or a real estate agent. However, throughout the process of obtaining a mortgage, 81% of recent buyers, at some point, relied on a mortgage professional (either a mortgage lender or mortgage broker) for advice and consultation.

Over three-quarters of recent buyers noted they received advice on mortgage terms and conditions, as well as whether to take a variable or fixed interest rate. More than 40% also received a recommendation to accelerate their mortgage payments in order to pay off their mortgages sooner.

Advice is not limited to just details about the mortgage. Recent buyers are also receiving recommendations to use specific professionals involved in the housing market such as home inspectors, lawyers, and real estate agents.

 

— Based on Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation 2011 Mortgage Survey

Jul
14

Calgary Condos to Rise again as Confidence Builds

In a sign of rising optimism about Calgary’s housing market, a number of condo towers in the city’s centre are moving ahead – including two that stalled with the economy, with shovels already in the ground.

“It’s all very positive,” says David Watson, the city’s general manager of planning, development and assessment.

“It says to me people are pretty optimistic about the future, any of these plans are probably a two-year build, everyone’s looking two, three years out.”

The city is currently reviewing at least four applications for residential towers in the downtown area.

One is a new development permit for The Guardian, a Beltline condo building on a site originally slated to be the companion tower to Arriva. Construction on the second tower had stopped in early 2009, with the underground parkade underway.

Now, plans are in place to begin selling condos this fall, if the redesign is approved by the city, said Steven Cox, with Cause+Affect, which is marketing the project for owner Nicholas Hon.

While he didn’t want to reeal details about the height of the tower or the number of units, Cox said the homes have been redesigned, with “a larger proportion of more efficient units than there would’ve been.”

The preliminary website advertises that a “rare land deal + optimized living spaces = high end affordability.”

Cox said they are starting to see an increase in buyers in the Calgary market, making moving ahead with the project feasible.

“That neighbourhood is showing some signs of life and, for us, we’ve got some real confidence,” he said.

Suspended project Strategic on 4th, an excavated site at 4th Avenue and 21st Street in Mission, has applied for a $24-million building permit for a mixed-use development.

As well, a revised development permit is in for Keynote’s second tower, Watson said, as are new plans for the Lake Placid development at 13th Avenue and 2nd Street S.W.

And the group managing development in the East Village has submitted a building permit for an “experience centre” which will showcase display suites from the two housing projects set to build there.

Susan Veres, senior manager of marketing and communication for the Calgary Municipal Land Corp., said both plan to start selling units next year.

Embassy Bosa has submitted a development permit for its first phase, while FRAM+Slokker Real Estate Group’s is “imminent,” Veres added.

“The economic indicators we are seeing right now are very, very strong and very positive,” Ald. John Mar, whose ward houses most of the projects, said. “It’s incredibly positive for Calgary, especially the stalled sites.

“These are all issues we were faced with in the downturn in 2008, 2009 and much of 2010, and to see those projects come back is not only incredibly strong for the city of Calgary, it bodes well for Canada.”

Richard Cho, senior market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing, said that after a period where there was much more condo stock than demand, the market is coming back into balance.

“The pace of sales are stabilizing and active listings are down from last year,” he said.

But he added that apartment and condo starts have been down.

“We haven’t had too many condo starts and we’re not expecting to see a lot this year,” he said.

“Year-to-date, apartment starts are slightly down from a year ago. The positive news is apartment inventories have been moving lower in the past couple of months.”

Downtown condominium developments

1. Guardian (formerly Arriva 2)

2. Encore (formerly Midtown Gateway)

3. Keynote

4. Centuria

5. Strategic Group

6. Bosa/Embassy

7. Fram + Slokker

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